Can Ankalaev's Volume Survive Guskov's Power?
Every read on this fight starts with the same tension: Ankalaev wins by making fights long and exhausting, and Guskov has never let a fight get long enough to find out if that works on him. Ankalaev beat Alex Pereira by decision in March, going the full five rounds and proving he can out-work elite competition over time. Seven months later, in the rematch, Pereira finished him via TKO from ground strikes and elbows just 1:20 into the first round. Both of those are real data points about the same fighter, and they point in opposite directions.
What Does an 18-Finish Record Actually Mean?
Guskov has 18 professional wins. All 18 are finishes. Thirteen of them came in the first round. That's either the resume of a genuinely terrifying finisher, or the resume of someone who has simply never been asked to win a fight the hard way — those two explanations look identical on paper and only get separated by actually going the distance with someone durable. Worth noting too: Guskov is a late replacement here, stepping in after Khalil Rountree Jr. withdrew from the original main event with an injury. That's a real step up in competition on shorter notice than a normal training camp.
Why Does the Model Still Like Ankalaev?
The model has Ankalaev at 63% confidence, by decision — a Medium-confidence pick, not a lock. The method breakdown reflects the real tension here: 56% decision, 41% KO/TKO, only 3% submission. That 41% is doing real work — the model isn't dismissing Guskov's power, it's saying that if this fight stays standing early and Guskov can't close the show fast, Ankalaev's pace and volume take over from there.
So What's the Pick?
Ankalaev by decision, 63% confidence. The whole fight turns on the first two rounds — if Guskov can't find the finish early, this is exactly the kind of grinding, high-volume fight Ankalaev has already proven he can win. If Guskov's hands land clean before that, none of Ankalaev's pace advantage ever gets a chance to show up.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov goes down July 25, 2026, at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.