Ankalaev has proven he can win a five-round grind against elite competition — he's also just been finished inside a round. Guskov has finished 18 of 18 wins, 13 in the first round. The model still likes the volume. Here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →The model had Du Plessis at 81% and flagged one variable that could flip it: Usman's takedown entries. He finished 0 for 7. Here's what that means, what else the model got right this week, and the two misses worth being honest about.
Read More →Usman has beaten bigger, more athletic strikers before by taking the fight to the mat and never giving it back. Du Plessis has never faced five rounds of that kind of pressure. The model still likes Du Plessis — here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →The model had Holloway winning a grinding decision as McGregor's power faded late. Instead, McGregor blew out his knee 69 seconds into round one and the fight was over. The model called the winner. It never got to be right for the reason it thought.
Read More →The UFC Performance Institute already runs fighter camps on biometrics and sports science. PFL is selling fans real-time positional data with SmartCage. The training side of this sport has gone data-driven. The fan-facing side mostly hasn't — that's the gap we built OAW to fill.
Read More →The model had Manuel Torres over Rafael Fiziev at 56% confidence. Fiziev knocked him out in 15 seconds of round two. This is the honest version of that night, not a spun one.
Read More →The model had Manel Kape finishing Kyoji Horiguchi by KO/TKO. He did, in round 3. That call was as clean as it gets. The undercard is a different, more honest story.
Read More →Topuria walked into the White House as the undisputed lightweight champion and a massive favorite. Almost nobody had Gaethje. He didn't care — and he proved the entire sport wrong on the biggest stage it has ever fought on.
Read More →Vegas had Belal Muhammad a -130 favorite. The model had Gabriel Bonfim winning by decision anyway. Bonfim won by decision. This is exactly the kind of call the model exists to make.
Read More →The model had Song Yadong winning by decision at 67%, betting that volume and a fresher frame would carry him over a faded, weight-miss-plagued Figueiredo. Song won — just not the way anyone expected.
Read More →Figueiredo is one of the best flyweights of his generation. But he missed weight for his last fight, lost badly to Umar Nurmagomedov, and is 38 years old. Song Yadong has lived at 135 his entire career. The model picks Song — here is why it is not as clean as people think.
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