Parnasse walks into his UFC debut off a two-division regional title reign, and Vegas has him as roughly an 84% favorite before he's thrown a single strike in the Octagon. Dan Hooker's recent losses came against Benoit Saint Denis and Arman Tsarukyan, real top-15 names, not a reason to write him off.
Read More →The model had Umar Nurmagomedov winning by decision, but only at 57% confidence -- its lowest tier, and deliberately so. Song Yadong knocked him out in round two instead. Here's what actually happened, and how a genuinely strong card played out around it.
Read More →The model had Hernandez at 57% by decision, on the read that Rodrigues had a real conditioning question. He fought all 25 minutes and won it clean instead. Here's what actually happened, and how the rest of the card went.
Read More →Everyone's bracing for Rodrigues' power. Hernandez has finished four dangerous strikers in a row and knows exactly how to take a fighter's weapons away. The real question isn't whether Robocop hits hard — it's what happens if he doesn't end this early.
Read More →Twelve of Shamil Gaziev's fourteen career wins came in round one or two — his finishing instinct is real, and heavily front-loaded. The two times recently a fight actually went deep on him, he's the one who got finished. Kennedy Nzechukwu is built to make this exactly that kind of night.
Read More →Nasrat Haqparast has the cleaner boxing in this fight — better footwork, a heavier jab, a real southpaw cross. But that edge only matters if he can actually hold the range where it works. Chris Padilla only needs a couple of breaks in that distance to flip the whole fight.
Read More →The public had Makhachev near an 80% lock. The model had him at 54%, by decision, built on one specific data point from Garry's only loss. That's exactly how it went. Here's the full UFC 330 card, which finished 7-5.
Read More →Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title he just won at UFC 322, and the public has him near an 80% favorite. The model has him too — just at 54%. The tape from Garry's only loss explains the gap: he actually out-landed elite grappling pressure standing up, and still lost on the scorecards. That's the blueprint, and the question, for Saturday.
Read More →The model had Mateusz Gamrot at 52% (Low confidence) off his wrestling and championship pedigree. Quillan Salkilld got rocked early, survived a scramble, then out-wrestled the two-time champion himself and finished him by rear-naked choke in the first round — his fourth straight first-round finish. Here's the full card, which still went 6-2 (75%).
Read More →The model had Medić at 57% to win by KO/TKO, while the public treated him like an 80% lock on the same finish. He won by KO/TKO in 30 seconds — nobody was surprised by how, just by how much the model hedged on whether he'd get there at all. Here's the full card, which finished 7-1, one of the strongest results of the season.
Read More →Uroš Medić headlines his first UFC main event in his home country, and the public has him a heavy favorite. The model likes him too — just nowhere near that much. Same size, same stance, same exact career finish count: this is a closer fight than the number on the screen suggests.
Read More →The model had Ankalaev at 63% by decision. He won by TKO instead — but the reason he won lines up almost exactly with what the model flagged going in. Here's the breakdown, plus what else happened on a 5-2 card.
Read More →Ankalaev has proven he can win a five-round grind against elite competition — he's also just been finished inside a round. Guskov has finished 18 of 18 wins, 13 in the first round. The model still likes the volume. Here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →The model had Du Plessis at 81% and flagged one variable that could flip it: Usman's takedown entries. He finished 0 for 7. Here's what that means, what else the model got right this week, and the two misses worth being honest about.
Read More →Usman has beaten bigger, more athletic strikers before by taking the fight to the mat and never giving it back. Du Plessis has never faced five rounds of that kind of pressure. The model still likes Du Plessis — here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →The model had Holloway winning a grinding decision as McGregor's power faded late. Instead, McGregor blew out his knee 69 seconds into round one and the fight was over. The model called the winner. It never got to be right for the reason it thought.
Read More →The UFC Performance Institute already runs fighter camps on biometrics and sports science. PFL is selling fans real-time positional data with SmartCage. The training side of this sport has gone data-driven. The fan-facing side mostly hasn't — that's the gap we built OAW to fill.
Read More →The model had Manuel Torres over Rafael Fiziev at 56% confidence. Fiziev knocked him out in 15 seconds of round two. This is the honest version of that night, not a spun one.
Read More →The model had Manel Kape finishing Kyoji Horiguchi by KO/TKO. He did, in round 3. That call was as clean as it gets. The undercard is a different, more honest story.
Read More →Topuria walked into the White House as the undisputed lightweight champion and a massive favorite. Almost nobody had Gaethje. He didn't care — and he proved the entire sport wrong on the biggest stage it has ever fought on.
Read More →Vegas had Belal Muhammad a -130 favorite. The model had Gabriel Bonfim winning by decision anyway. Bonfim won by decision. This is exactly the kind of call the model exists to make.
Read More →The model had Song Yadong winning by decision at 67%, betting that volume and a fresher frame would carry him over a faded, weight-miss-plagued Figueiredo. Song won — just not the way anyone expected.
Read More →Figueiredo is one of the best flyweights of his generation. But he missed weight for his last fight, lost badly to Umar Nurmagomedov, and is 38 years old. Song Yadong has lived at 135 his entire career. The model picks Song — here is why it is not as clean as people think.
Read More →