We had Mike Malott beating Joaquin Buckley by decision at 66% confidence. He won instead by knockout, a knee to the head in round …
We had Brendan Allen beating Christian Leroy Duncan by decision at 55% confidence. He won instead by submitting Duncan for the fir…
Allen and Duncan are both 3-for-3 in their last three, both ranked in the top 10, and both fighting for a real shot at a title eli…
Natalia Silva Is Flyweight Champion -- Inside the Most Finish-Heavy Card of the Year
Natalia Silva won a closer-than-the-scorecards-suggest decision to become flyweight champion, but the real story of UFC 332 was a card that produced 11 finishes in 12 fights. Here's everything that actually happened, including a late-notice swap and a retirement fight that didn't get the ending it deserved.
Read More →Raul Rosas Jr. Wins It, Then Everyone Holds Their Breath -- Inside a Wild Night at UFC Vegas 121
A career-best win turned into a genuine medical scare, a TUF finale ended on a disqualification nobody saw coming, and the co-main event is still being argued about this morning. UFC Vegas 121 delivered one of the wildest nights of the year -- here's everything that actually happened.
Read More →Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos: Can Experience Beat a 5-Fight Win Streak?
Both of these bantamweights are dangerous to anyone in the division because of their grappling and wrestling control. Barcelos is 38, nearly twice Rosas Jr.'s age. Rosas Jr. is 21, on a real 5-fight win streak. Here's why the model still leans toward the upstart.
Read More →Joshua Van Beat Alexandre Pantoja Again -- Two Live Underdogs Beat Us to the Headline
The model called Joshua Van to retain his flyweight title, and he did -- just by decision instead of the finish we had. The real story of the card was two live underdogs, Alonzo Menifield and Marlon Vera, both getting their hand raised. Here's how UFC 331 actually played out.
Read More →Noche UFC Recap: Jean Silva's Redemption, and a Night for Mexico's Legends
A year after suffering his only UFC loss on this same card, Jean Silva got dropped again in round one -- and still finished Jose Delgado by submission in round three. Alexa Grasso and Brandon Moreno both delivered on Mexican Independence Day week, and a first-round finish between two UFC debutants stole the undercard.
Read More →We Bet Against Vegas Once This Card. It Took 100 Seconds to Pay Off.
We only disagreed with Vegas once this card -- Axel Sola over favorite Fares Ziam. Sola needed one round and 100 seconds to prove us right. Here's how that pick landed, how the actual main event went instead, and how the rest of a rough night played out.
Read More →Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse: Should an 84% Favorite Be This Comfortable?
Parnasse walks into his UFC debut off a two-division regional title reign, and Vegas has him as roughly an 84% favorite before he's thrown a single strike in the Octagon. Dan Hooker's recent losses came against Benoit Saint Denis and Arman Tsarukyan, real top-15 names, not a reason to write him off.
Read More →Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong Recap: A Low-Confidence Pick Goes Wrong, and the Card Doesn't
The model had Umar Nurmagomedov winning by decision, but only at 57% confidence -- its lowest tier, and deliberately so. Song Yadong knocked him out in round two instead. Here's what actually happened, and how a genuinely strong card played out around it.
Read More →Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues Recap: Robocop's Turnaround Beat the Model
The model had Hernandez at 57% by decision, on the read that Rodrigues had a real conditioning question. He fought all 25 minutes and won it clean instead. Here's what actually happened, and how the rest of the card went.
Read More →Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues: Is Robocop's Power the Real Story?
Everyone's bracing for Rodrigues' power. Hernandez has finished four dangerous strikers in a row and knows exactly how to take a fighter's weapons away. The real question isn't whether Robocop hits hard — it's what happens if he doesn't end this early.
Read More →Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev: What Happens When Gaziev Doesn't Get It Early?
Twelve of Shamil Gaziev's fourteen career wins came in round one or two — his finishing instinct is real, and heavily front-loaded. The two times recently a fight actually went deep on him, he's the one who got finished. Kennedy Nzechukwu is built to make this exactly that kind of night.
Read More →Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast: Can Nasrat Control the Range?
Nasrat Haqparast has the cleaner boxing in this fight — better footwork, a heavier jab, a real southpaw cross. But that edge only matters if he can actually hold the range where it works. Chris Padilla only needs a couple of breaks in that distance to flip the whole fight.
Read More →Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Recap: The Blueprint Held
The public had Makhachev near an 80% lock. The model had him at 54%, by decision, built on one specific data point from Garry's only loss. That's exactly how it went. Here's the full UFC 330 card, which finished 7-5.
Read More →Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry: Everyone Has This as a Lock. The Model Doesn't.
Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title he just won at UFC 322, and the public has him near an 80% favorite. The model has him too — just at 54%. The tape from Garry's only loss explains the gap: he actually out-landed elite grappling pressure standing up, and still lost on the scorecards. That's the blueprint, and the question, for Saturday.
Read More →Quillan Salkilld Made a Statement — The Model Had Gamrot Winning This
The model had Mateusz Gamrot at 52% (Low confidence) off his wrestling and championship pedigree. Quillan Salkilld got rocked early, survived a scramble, then out-wrestled the two-time champion himself and finished him by rear-naked choke in the first round — his fourth straight first-round finish. Here's the full card, which still went 6-2 (75%).
Read More →Uroš Medić vs. Daniel Rodriguez Recap: The Model Was Right, Just Not as Sure as Everyone Else
The model had Medić at 57% to win by KO/TKO, while the public treated him like an 80% lock on the same finish. He won by KO/TKO in 30 seconds — nobody was surprised by how, just by how much the model hedged on whether he'd get there at all. Here's the full card, which finished 7-1, one of the strongest results of the season.
Read More →Uroš Medić vs. Daniel Rodriguez: The Model Isn't Nearly as Sure as Everyone Else
Uroš Medić headlines his first UFC main event in his home country, and the public has him a heavy favorite. The model likes him too — just nowhere near that much. Same size, same stance, same exact career finish count: this is a closer fight than the number on the screen suggests.
Read More →Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov Recap: The Model Called the Winner, Guskov's Gas Tank Did the Rest
The model had Ankalaev at 63% by decision. He won by TKO instead — but the reason he won lines up almost exactly with what the model flagged going in. Here's the breakdown, plus what else happened on a 5-2 card.
Read More →Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov: Can Volume Survive Power?
Ankalaev has proven he can win a five-round grind against elite competition — he's also just been finished inside a round. Guskov has finished 18 of 18 wins, 13 in the first round. The model still likes the volume. Here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Recap: The Model Called the Wrestling Question Right
The model had Du Plessis at 81% and flagged one variable that could flip it: Usman's takedown entries. He finished 0 for 7. Here's what that means, what else the model got right this week, and the two misses worth being honest about.
Read More →Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman: Can Wrestling Actually Slow Him Down?
Usman has beaten bigger, more athletic strikers before by taking the fight to the mat and never giving it back. Du Plessis has never faced five rounds of that kind of pressure. The model still likes Du Plessis — here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →Max Holloway Beat Conor McGregor — But Nobody Wanted It Like This
The model had Holloway winning a grinding decision as McGregor's power faded late. Instead, McGregor blew out his knee 69 seconds into round one and the fight was over. The model called the winner. It never got to be right for the reason it thought.
Read More →The UFC Is Turning Into a Data Sport — Fans Are Just Catching Up
The UFC Performance Institute already runs fighter camps on biometrics and sports science. PFL is selling fans real-time positional data with SmartCage. The training side of this sport has gone data-driven. The fan-facing side mostly hasn't — that's the gap we built OAW to fill.
Read More →Fiziev Said Absolutely Not — The Model Got This One Wrong
The model had Manuel Torres over Rafael Fiziev at 56% confidence. Fiziev knocked him out in 15 seconds of round two. This is the honest version of that night, not a spun one.
Read More →Manel Kape Called It, Round and Method — The Card Around It Was Rough
The model had Manel Kape finishing Kyoji Horiguchi by KO/TKO. He did, in round 3. That call was as clean as it gets. The undercard is a different, more honest story.
Read More →We Had Topuria. Justin Gaethje Had Other Plans.
Topuria walked into the White House as the undisputed lightweight champion and a massive favorite. Almost nobody had Gaethje. He didn't care — and he proved the entire sport wrong on the biggest stage it has ever fought on.
Read More →Gabriel Bonfim Beat Belal Muhammad — And the Model Saw It Coming
Vegas had Belal Muhammad a -130 favorite. The model had Gabriel Bonfim winning by decision anyway. Bonfim won by decision. This is exactly the kind of call the model exists to make.
Read More →Song Yadong vs. Figueiredo Recap: Right Winner, Wrong Ending
The model had Song Yadong winning by decision at 67%, betting that volume and a fresher frame would carry him over a faded, weight-miss-plagued Figueiredo. Song won — just not the way anyone expected.
Read More →Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo: Can a Legend Survive Bantamweight?
Figueiredo is one of the best flyweights of his generation. But he missed weight for his last fight, lost badly to Umar Nurmagomedov, and is 38 years old. Song Yadong has lived at 135 his entire career. The model picks Song — here is why it is not as clean as people think.
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