Did the Model Get Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Right?
No. The model had Anthony Hernandez at 57% confidence to win by decision, largely on a real conditioning question hanging over Gregory Rodrigues. Instead, Rodrigues won a unanimous decision, with scorecards of 48-47, 49-46, and 48-47. It wasn't a blowout on paper, but it also wasn't as close as those numbers make it look — Rodrigues did the more visible damage for most of the fight.
What Actually Happened
Rodrigues took over early, landing the heavier shots in round one before a big second round that included multiple knockdowns off leg kicks and extended ground-and-pound from full mount — the kind of round that had this looking like a stoppage in the making. Hernandez answered in round three, scoring an early takedown and grinding Rodrigues against the fence for the whole frame; two of the three judges actually gave him that round. But Rodrigues took center cage back in round four and closed the show in round five, finishing a fight he's previously struggled to finish in the championship rounds. He also stuffed 26 of Hernandez's 29 takedown attempts for the night — the exact kind of takedown defense that wasn't a given going in.
What Did the Model Miss This Week?
A rough one: 5 of 10 on the card. Beyond the main event, the model missed on Kennedy Nzechukwu (finished by Shamil Gaziev), Lerryan Douglas (finished by Jamall Emmers after controlling the fight early), Mason Jones (finished by MarQuel Mederos), and Wes Schultz (finished by Jackson McVey). On the other side, real hits: Carli Judice, Chris Padilla, Shanelle Dyer, Reinier de Ridder, and Marcio Barbosa all won the way the model called it. This card also marked the debut of Fighter Passport, a new bio-based read for fights the model doesn't have enough data to grade — it went 2 for 3 on its first outing, correctly flagging Marcio Barbosa and Anthony Wint.
What's Next?
The card moves to Shanghai for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on August 29, where Umar Nurmagomedov headlines against Song Yadong at bantamweight. The model's breakdown drops Thursday.
Model record this card: 5-5 (50%). Main event confidence: 57%, incorrect.