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HOW IT WORKS

Understanding Our Prediction Model

Our Approach

We combine data-driven analysis with expert fight knowledge to create predictions that are both statistically sound and contextually informed.

Our prediction model analyzes multiple performance dimensions across several core categories, blending quantitative fight statistics with qualitative expert assessments to capture the full picture of each matchup.

Unlike pure betting odds (which reflect money flow) or pure analytics (which miss intangibles), we occupy the sweet spot: credible data meets fight IQ.

Key Analysis Categories

Every prediction evaluates fighters across multiple key dimensions:

Fighter Intangibles
Expert assessment of qualities that don't show in the stats: chin durability, fight IQ, composure under pressure, and style matchup advantages.
Striking Performance
Analysis of striking effectiveness including accuracy, defense, output volume, and strike absorption patterns.
Grappling & Control
Evaluation of wrestling ability, takedown success, control time, submission threats, and ground effectiveness.
Recent Form
Assessment of current momentum, win/loss trends, level of recent competition, and performance trajectory.
X-Factor Elements
Special attributes that can swing fights: finishing ability, comeback resilience, pressure handling, and octagon control.

Method of Victory

Beyond picking the winner, we predict how the fight ends:

Decision: Likelihood the fight goes the full distance based on both fighters' historical patterns.
KO/TKO: Probability of a striking finish considering offensive and defensive capabilities.
Submission: Chance of a grappling finish based on submission skills and defensive vulnerabilities.

This breakdown helps you understand not just who wins, but the most likely path to victory.

Confidence-Based Pricing

Transparency is our differentiator. We're not equally confident in every prediction, and our pricing reflects that honesty.

High Confidence
70%+ confidence • Clear statistical edge • Strong style matchup
5 tokens
Medium Confidence
60-69% confidence • Solid data backing • Competitive but leaning one way
4 tokens
Low Confidence
50-59% confidence • Close fight • Slight edge based on model
3 tokens

Higher prices signal higher confidence. We charge more when we're more certain because we believe in the quality of our strongest picks.

What Makes Us Different

We're not a betting site. We don't take bets or profit from losses.

We're not a data dump. You get clear, concise explanations—not overwhelming spreadsheets.

We're not all-or-nothing. Pick and choose the fights you care about. No forced packages.

We're built for casual fans who want to bet smarter without becoming UFC statisticians.

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