Frequently Asked Questions

Octagon Algorithm Wars is a prediction service that analyzes fight data to give you insights on upcoming UFC matchups. Our model combines statistical fight data with expert scouting analysis to generate winners, methods of victory, and confidence levels for every fight. AI helps write the explanation behind each pick, but never changes what the model itself predicts.

We aggregate data from official UFC statistics, fighter records, and historical fight data. Our model analyzes factors like striking accuracy, takedown defense, win streaks, opponent quality, and much more.

We predict every fight we have enough data for. Occasionally we skip a fight when a fighter is making their UFC debut and doesn't have meaningful professional cage time on record. In that case, the fight will be marked as skipped — we'd rather flag the gap than give you a number that means nothing.

One fight per card is always free — no login required. We call it the Featured Fight. It's the same pick we post on TikTok that week. You get the winner prediction, method of victory, and confidence level. No purchase necessary.

The Event Pass ($4.99 USD) gives you full access to every fight on this week's card. Winner picks, method breakdowns, confidence levels, and a short supporting analysis for every fight. One-time purchase, no subscription.

Membership ($9.99/month USD) covers every card every month. You also get early access — you see the full card before the Event Pass goes on sale — plus Member Insights for every fight on the card: deeper analysis on fighter styles, matchup dynamics, and what to watch for live. Cancel anytime.

Members see the full card 1–3 days before Event Passes go on sale. Picks are live for members by Wednesday at 5pm ET (9pm UTC) each week. The Event Pass opens Thursday at 5pm ET (9pm UTC). That window is yours as a member.

We track every prediction and publish full results. Currently sitting at 64.7% winner accuracy across 397 fights and 38 events. Picks the model rates High Confidence have hit 78.5% (95 of 121 fights). Check our Track Record and Past Results pages for the full breakdown — we believe in radical transparency.

MMA is unpredictable — upsets happen! We provide data-driven analysis to give you an edge, but anything can happen in the octagon. Our goal is to help you understand the matchup and make more informed decisions, not to guarantee outcomes. No refunds are offered for incorrect predictions.

Draws are excluded from our accuracy tracking. The model predicts a winner — that's its only output — so a draw is a result it structurally can't anticipate. When a fight ends in a draw, we skip it in the results and don't count it toward or against our record.

No. We provide entertainment and analysis only. We do not facilitate betting, accept wagers, or have any affiliation with sportsbooks. If you choose to use our predictions for wagering, please do so responsibly and within your means.

Predictions are active for the current card only. Once the event ends and we reset for the next card, past predictions are no longer available on the predictions page. For historical results and outcomes, visit our Past Results page.