Did the Model Get the Main Event Right?
Exactly right. The model had Manel Kape beating Kyoji Horiguchi by KO/TKO. That's precisely what happened, in round 3. When a Low-confidence pick (57%) lands on both the winner and the method, that's not luck lining up — it's the read being correct despite the number saying it was a coin flip.
So Why Was the Rest of the Card So Rough?
Honestly: 4 of 9, 44.4%. No spin here — that's a bad card. A High-confidence pick (Andre Lima, 85%) lost outright, which is the single most damaging kind of miss the model can have, since High-tier picks are supposed to be the trustworthy ones. That one goes on the record plainly.
What Does a Card Like This Actually Tell Us?
One bad card doesn't undo a tier system built on hundreds of fights, but a High-confidence loss deserves more scrutiny than a Low-confidence one — that's exactly the kind of result worth digging into rather than explaining away. The main event call staying clean is the one thing from this week worth carrying forward; the rest is a card to move past, not defend.
Model record this card: 4-5 (44.4%). Main event: winner and method, exact.