The One Time We Went Off Board
Vegas had Fares Ziam favored, roughly 60%. We looked at that number and said no -- Axel Sola was walking through it. That's the only disagreement we had with the market all card, and it's the best story on the night. Sola didn't need three rounds to make the point. He found Ziam in round one and put him away at 1:40. A hundred seconds of fight time, and the pick was already over.
The Real Main Event
Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse didn't get a scored model pick -- Parnasse was making his UFC debut, and there wasn't enough data yet for a real prediction. He didn't need one: Parnasse finished Hooker by first-round KO at 2:35, closing the show on a fight where he came in overwhelmingly favored, roughly 84%, to begin with.
Everything Else Went Sideways
Sola's knockout stood alone. Outside of him, we went 3 for 9, and even those three were just us agreeing with Vegas -- Losene Keita, Kurtis Campbell, and Nora Cornolle all won as favorites, not underdogs. The misses actually hurt: Michael Page over Nursulton Ruziboev, Daniil Donchenko over Punahele Soriano, Felipe Lima over Morgan Charriere, Mario Pinto stopping Ryan Spann in round two, Matthieu Duclos knocking out Luis Felipe Dias in round one. Two more underdogs cashed in on this card that we never saw coming: Fabia Sintes over Michael Aljarouj, and Modestas Bukauskas over Oumar Sy.
What's Next
We're headed to Glendale, Arizona for Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on September 12 -- Jean Silva and Jose Delgado headline at featherweight, with Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales, Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso, and Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta also on the main card. Our breakdown drops Thursday.
Card record: 4-6. The one time we disagreed with Vegas, we were right.
