Did the Model Get Nurmagomedov vs. Song Right?
No. The model had Umar Nurmagomedov winning by decision at 57% confidence, its lowest tier. The read going in was specific: Nurmagomedov had real, identifiable gaps, and Song Yadong was live and dangerous enough to end the fight early if given the chance. Song did exactly that, knocking out Nurmagomedov at 1:48 of round two.
What Actually Happened
Round one went to Nurmagomedov. He and Song traded at range, and a guillotine attempt from Song came up empty. Round two flipped fast: Song landed a clean right hand as Nurmagomedov shot in for a takedown, and the fight was over before Nurmagomedov could recover.
What Did the Model Get Right This Week?
Everywhere else, this was a strong card: 6 of 8 graded fights correct (75%), and neither miss came at high confidence. Denise Gomes stopped Yan Xiaonan in round one, the less obvious pick and the right one. Kai Asakura finished Aoriqileng in round two. Sumudaerji out-pointed Alex Perez over three rounds. Andre Lima submitted Namsrai Batbayar in round three. Rei Tsuruya submitted Kevin Borjas in round one. And at 80% confidence, the card's highest, Julia Polastri knocked out Jingnan Xiong in round one, exactly as called. The other miss was Sean Woodson's split decision over Jack Jenkins, a fight the model also had at 57%, the same low tier as the main event.
What's Next?
The card moves to Paris for UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on September 5, where Dan Hooker headlines against hometown favorite Salahdine Parnasse at lightweight. The model's breakdown drops Thursday.
Model record this card: 6-2 (75%). Main event confidence: 57%, incorrect.