Did the Model Get Makhachev vs. Garry Right?
Yes, on both the winner and the method. The model had Islam Makhachev at 54% confidence to beat Ian Machado Garry by decision — a real gap below where the public had settled, close to an 80% favorite heading into fight week. Makhachev won a unanimous decision over five rounds to retain the welterweight title, 49-46 twice and 48-47 once. The scorecards make it look cleaner than it actually was.
How the Fight Actually Played Out
Rounds one and two were the blueprint the preview described almost exactly: Makhachev controlled the fight for a combined 12:30 against 34 seconds of control time for Garry, landing 7 of 15 takedowns to Garry's zero. Round two ended with Makhachev putting Garry down with a head kick — the only knockdown of the fight. That's as clean a start as the model's case for him could have asked for.
Round three flipped. All three judges gave it to Garry — Makhachev's takedown entries dried up and Garry started landing at range. Then the championship rounds got genuinely interesting: Makhachev's own output collapsed, from 5 significant strikes landed in round three to 3 in round four to just 0 of 3 in round five, while Garry's climbed to 7 landed in round four (63%) and 7 in round five (77%) — his best striking of the fight, right as Makhachev visibly ran out of gas. Two of three judges still gave Makhachev round four on control; the third, Eric Colon, scored it for Garry. Round five went to Makhachev unanimously, likely on positioning rather than output, since he barely threw.
Put together: Makhachev won because the first two rounds and the control-time margin were too big to climb back from, not because he was the better fighter wire to wire. The model's read on the mechanism — wrestling and control beat Garry's length — was right. The read on how comfortably it would hold up for five rounds was more generous than what actually happened.
How Did the Rest of the Card Go?
7 of 12 correct, 58.3%. Two of the misses are worth naming plainly instead of glossing over: Myktybek Orolbai at 75% lost to Jeremiah Wells by guillotine choke in round 3, and Joel Alvarez at 72% lost a decision to Chidi Njokuani. Both were High-tier picks, and both losses deserve more scrutiny than a Low-tier miss would. On the other side, Esteban Ribovics (75%) finished Edson Barboza by strikes in round 2, and the model's picks in the 54-67% range split close to what that confidence range should produce — Charles Johnson, Mackenzie Dern, Donte Johnson, Tresean Gore, and Lucas Fernando all won as predicted.
What's Next?
Attention turns to UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on August 22 in Sacramento, headlined by Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez vs. Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues. The model's breakdown drops Thursday.
Model record this card: 7-5 (58.3%). Main event confidence: 54%, correct winner, correct method.