Is Robocop's Power the Real Story Here?
Gregory Rodrigues hits hard, and the build-up to this fight is mostly about that. But Anthony Hernandez rode an eight-fight UFC win streak into this year before Sean Strickland finally stopped it in February, and along the way he finished four fighters known for real power: Edmen Shahbazyan, Roman Kopylov, Michel Pereira, and Roman Dolidze. Dangerous strikers aren't new territory for him. The pattern across that streak isn't survival — it's Hernandez finding a way to take a dangerous fighter's weapons away before they matter.
Why Is the Wrestling the Real Gameplan, Not a Backup Plan?
Hernandez averages nearly six takedowns a fight, and twelve of his fifteen career wins have ended before the final bell — eighty percent finished inside the distance. Against a fighter with Rodrigues' power, that wrestling isn't a fallback if the standup goes wrong. It's the plan. Drag the fight into deep water early, before one clean shot changes the entire complexion of the fight.
What Happens If Rodrigues Can't Finish Early?
Rodrigues has his own wrestling background, so this isn't a one-dimensional threat. But his one real test of a deep fight is instructive: the last time he went past three rounds, against Jared Cannonier, he survived the first three — then got knocked out twenty-one seconds into round four. Hernandez has the opposite record in exactly that scenario. He finished Michel Pereira in round five, after four full rounds of pressure, with real finishes sitting in the championship rounds already on his resume. If this fight is still live in round four, that's the fighter it seems to favor.
So What's the Pick?
The model has Hernandez winning at 57% confidence, by decision — a real edge, not a lock. The method breakdown: 65% decision, 28% submission, just 7% KO/TKO, which tracks with the read above — Hernandez's path here runs through control, not a knockout. The whole fight turns on whether Rodrigues can close the show before Hernandez ever gets the wrestling started.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues goes down August 22, 2026, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.