Van Retains, Just Not How We Called It
The model had Joshua Van winning this rematch at 58% confidence, leaning toward a finish. Van won -- but by decision, not knockout. Pantoja fought hard early and found real control on the mat, but Van escaped every submission attempt and never gave that control back once he got out. Van nearly finished Pantoja multiple times in the championship rounds, but Pantoja is tough enough to survive almost anything. Right winner, wrong ending -- and a real Fight of the Night effort from both men.
Two Live Underdogs Actually Carried This Card
Alonzo Menifield was a live underdog against Iwo Baraniewski, a perfect 9-0 finisher. We liked Menifield's path -- clinch and body work to wear Baraniewski down before his own power became the deciding factor -- and that's almost exactly how it played out, a decision win in round 3. Marlon 'Chito' Vera was also live dog territory against Charles Jourdain. We liked Vera's whole game plan of outlasting people with patient, powerful striking, and he needed exactly that -- a third-round knockout after Jourdain's own early pace faded.
The Real Miss of the Night
Gable Steveson was our highest-confidence pick of the entire card at 86%, a significant favorite over Sean Sharaf. Sharaf knocked him out in 12 seconds. Patricio Pitbull, a live underdog against Dooho Choi, also got his hand raised by first-round knockout -- a fight we had the other way. Both misses are worth naming plainly, not burying, even on a card with real hits elsewhere.
Final Card Record
7 of 12 correct (58.3%) on the graded card. Up next: UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, September 26, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas -- predictions are already live.
