Did the Model Get Bonfim vs. Muhammad Right?
Yes — and this is the pick worth paying attention to. Vegas had Belal Muhammad as a -130 favorite. The model disagreed, putting Gabriel Bonfim ahead at 61% confidence, by decision. Bonfim won by decision, going the full five rounds. The model didn't just beat the public line here; it beat the line on the fight's biggest name.
What Did the Model See That the Line Didn't?
Career momentum was the read: Bonfim on a winning streak, Muhammad further from his best form than the odds reflected. It's the exact kind of gap between market price and underlying trajectory the model is built to catch — and this week it caught it clean.
How Did the Rest of the Card Go?
9 of 12 correct, 75% on the card — one of the stronger results in recent weeks. A High-confidence pick, Alessandro Costa at 72%, finished by KO/TKO exactly as the tier would predict. The misses were concentrated in Low-confidence coin-flip territory, right where the model's own tiers say they should be.
Model record this card: 9-3 (75%). Model vs. Vegas on the main event: model right, Vegas wrong.