The Weight Miss Nobody Forgot
Before we talk about the fight, we have to talk about the number. Deiveson Figueiredo came in at 138.5 pounds for his bantamweight bout against Umar Nurmagomedov in 2026 — 2.5 pounds over the non-title limit. He then lost that fight badly. It was not a close decision. At 38 years old, that combination — a weight miss and a lopsided loss — is not a blip. It is a pattern.
Figueiredo built his entire career at flyweight. His frame, his recovery, his durability — all of it was optimized for 125 pounds. Moving up should theoretically make the cut easier. When it does not, that tells you something about where his body is at heading into May 30.
What He Showed Against Montel Jackson
Here is the thing though: Figueiredo is not done. Watch the Montel Jackson fight back and you will see a fighter who still knows how to control a bout. Figueiredo landed at 53% accuracy, controlled 2:18 of cage time to Jackson's 2 seconds, and used his wrestling to drain Jackson's output over three rounds. By round three, Jackson was not the same fighter he was in round one. Some people called it quitting. It was not quitting — it was exhaustion, and Figueiredo put it there on purpose.
The problem is what that fight also showed. Figueiredo's striking output has come down. Jackson threw 70 significant strikes to Figueiredo's 43. Figueiredo won on accuracy and wrestling, not volume. Song Yadong is not Montel Jackson.
The Song Yadong Problem
Song has been at bantamweight since his UFC debut. He is not adjusting to anything. His jab, his timing, his ability to work at range for five rounds — all of it is calibrated to this exact weight class. He is also 28 years old and coming off a unified decision win. The momentum is real.
The age gap between these two fighters is ten years. Song is 28. Figueiredo is 38. At flyweight, Figueiredo was so physically dominant that age barely registered. At bantamweight, against a bigger, stronger, younger opponent who knows this environment better than he does, it matters in ways that do not show up until round three.
The Pick
The model picks Song Yadong by decision on May 30, and the reasoning is straightforward: Song controls distance, stacks output, and does not make the kind of mistakes that give Figueiredo his windows. Over five rounds at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, that adds up.
But this is not a blowout prediction. The version of Figueiredo who dismantled fighters before his knee injury — the one with elite wrestling and the finishing instinct to match — that version can beat Song. If Figueiredo drags this to a wrestling fight and grinds the middle rounds, the judges could see it differently.
The question is which Figueiredo shows up on Saturday. The post-injury version has been winning close decisions. The pre-injury version was finishing people. Song needs to make sure the fight never becomes the second option.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo goes down May 30, 2026. The model has Song. The case for Figgy is real. Do not sleep on round one.