Fight breakdowns, model recaps, and weekly learnings to help you see the sport differently.
Allen and Duncan are both 3-for-3 in their last three, both ranked in the top 10, and both fighting for a real shot at a title eliminator. Allen's already told the press his plan -- here's why the model still only gives him 55%.
Read More →Both of these bantamweights are dangerous to anyone in the division because of their grappling and wrestling control. Barcelos is 38, nearly twice Rosas Jr.'s age. Rosas Jr. is 21, on a real 5-fight win streak. Here's why the model still leans toward the upstart.
Read More →Parnasse walks into his UFC debut off a two-division regional title reign, and Vegas has him as roughly an 84% favorite before he's thrown a single strike in the Octagon. Dan Hooker's recent losses came against Benoit Saint Denis and Arman Tsarukyan, real top-15 names, not a reason to write him off.
Read More →Everyone's bracing for Rodrigues' power. Hernandez has finished four dangerous strikers in a row and knows exactly how to take a fighter's weapons away. The real question isn't whether Robocop hits hard — it's what happens if he doesn't end this early.
Read More →Twelve of Shamil Gaziev's fourteen career wins came in round one or two — his finishing instinct is real, and heavily front-loaded. The two times recently a fight actually went deep on him, he's the one who got finished. Kennedy Nzechukwu is built to make this exactly that kind of night.
Read More →Nasrat Haqparast has the cleaner boxing in this fight — better footwork, a heavier jab, a real southpaw cross. But that edge only matters if he can actually hold the range where it works. Chris Padilla only needs a couple of breaks in that distance to flip the whole fight.
Read More →Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title he just won at UFC 322, and the public has him near an 80% favorite. The model has him too — just at 54%. The tape from Garry's only loss explains the gap: he actually out-landed elite grappling pressure standing up, and still lost on the scorecards. That's the blueprint, and the question, for Saturday.
Read More →Uroš Medić headlines his first UFC main event in his home country, and the public has him a heavy favorite. The model likes him too — just nowhere near that much. Same size, same stance, same exact career finish count: this is a closer fight than the number on the screen suggests.
Read More →Ankalaev has proven he can win a five-round grind against elite competition — he's also just been finished inside a round. Guskov has finished 18 of 18 wins, 13 in the first round. The model still likes the volume. Here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →Usman has beaten bigger, more athletic strikers before by taking the fight to the mat and never giving it back. Du Plessis has never faced five rounds of that kind of pressure. The model still likes Du Plessis — here's the one variable that could flip it.
Read More →Figueiredo is one of the best flyweights of his generation. But he missed weight for his last fight, lost badly to Umar Nurmagomedov, and is 38 years old. Song Yadong has lived at 135 his entire career. The model picks Song — here is why it is not as clean as people think.
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