Fight breakdowns, model recaps, and weekly learnings to help you see the sport differently.
We had Mike Malott beating Joaquin Buckley by decision at 66% confidence. He won instead by knockout, a knee to the head in round two. The main event hit on the winner and missed the method, and the rest of the card turned into one of the most upset-heavy nights we've graded in months.
Read More →We had Brendan Allen beating Christian Leroy Duncan by decision at 55% confidence. He won instead by submitting Duncan for the first time in his career. Here's how the main event actually played out, and how a genuinely finish-heavy card went the rest of the way.
Read More →Natalia Silva won a closer-than-the-scorecards-suggest decision to become flyweight champion, but the real story of UFC 332 was a card that produced 11 finishes in 12 fights. Here's everything that actually happened, including a late-notice swap and a retirement fight that didn't get the ending it deserved.
Read More →A career-best win turned into a genuine medical scare, a TUF finale ended on a disqualification nobody saw coming, and the co-main event is still being argued about this morning. UFC Vegas 121 delivered one of the wildest nights of the year -- here's everything that actually happened.
Read More →The model called Joshua Van to retain his flyweight title, and he did -- just by decision instead of the finish we had. The real story of the card was two live underdogs, Alonzo Menifield and Marlon Vera, both getting their hand raised. Here's how UFC 331 actually played out.
Read More →A year after suffering his only UFC loss on this same card, Jean Silva got dropped again in round one -- and still finished Jose Delgado by submission in round three. Alexa Grasso and Brandon Moreno both delivered on Mexican Independence Day week, and a first-round finish between two UFC debutants stole the undercard.
Read More →We only disagreed with Vegas once this card -- Axel Sola over favorite Fares Ziam. Sola needed one round and 100 seconds to prove us right. Here's how that pick landed, how the actual main event went instead, and how the rest of a rough night played out.
Read More →The model had Umar Nurmagomedov winning by decision, but only at 57% confidence -- its lowest tier, and deliberately so. Song Yadong knocked him out in round two instead. Here's what actually happened, and how a genuinely strong card played out around it.
Read More →The model had Hernandez at 57% by decision, on the read that Rodrigues had a real conditioning question. He fought all 25 minutes and won it clean instead. Here's what actually happened, and how the rest of the card went.
Read More →The public had Makhachev near an 80% lock. The model had him at 54%, by decision, built on one specific data point from Garry's only loss. That's exactly how it went. Here's the full UFC 330 card, which finished 7-5.
Read More →The model had Mateusz Gamrot at 52% (Low confidence) off his wrestling and championship pedigree. Quillan Salkilld got rocked early, survived a scramble, then out-wrestled the two-time champion himself and finished him by rear-naked choke in the first round — his fourth straight first-round finish. Here's the full card, which still went 6-2 (75%).
Read More →The model had Medić at 57% to win by KO/TKO, while the public treated him like an 80% lock on the same finish. He won by KO/TKO in 30 seconds — nobody was surprised by how, just by how much the model hedged on whether he'd get there at all. Here's the full card, which finished 7-1, one of the strongest results of the season.
Read More →The model had Ankalaev at 63% by decision. He won by TKO instead — but the reason he won lines up almost exactly with what the model flagged going in. Here's the breakdown, plus what else happened on a 5-2 card.
Read More →The model had Du Plessis at 81% and flagged one variable that could flip it: Usman's takedown entries. He finished 0 for 7. Here's what that means, what else the model got right this week, and the two misses worth being honest about.
Read More →The model had Holloway winning a grinding decision as McGregor's power faded late. Instead, McGregor blew out his knee 69 seconds into round one and the fight was over. The model called the winner. It never got to be right for the reason it thought.
Read More →The model had Manuel Torres over Rafael Fiziev at 56% confidence. Fiziev knocked him out in 15 seconds of round two. This is the honest version of that night, not a spun one.
Read More →The model had Manel Kape finishing Kyoji Horiguchi by KO/TKO. He did, in round 3. That call was as clean as it gets. The undercard is a different, more honest story.
Read More →Topuria walked into the White House as the undisputed lightweight champion and a massive favorite. Almost nobody had Gaethje. He didn't care — and he proved the entire sport wrong on the biggest stage it has ever fought on.
Read More →Vegas had Belal Muhammad a -130 favorite. The model had Gabriel Bonfim winning by decision anyway. Bonfim won by decision. This is exactly the kind of call the model exists to make.
Read More →The model had Song Yadong winning by decision at 67%, betting that volume and a fresher frame would carry him over a faded, weight-miss-plagued Figueiredo. Song won — just not the way anyone expected.
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