Did the Model Get Du Plessis vs. Usman Right?
Yes, and not narrowly. The model had Dricus Du Plessis at 81% confidence to beat Kamaru Usman by decision, with the entire pick resting on one question we flagged going in: could Usman actually land his takedowns? He finished the fight 0 for 7 on takedown attempts. That wasn't a close call the judges had to sort out — it was the exact variable we said would decide the fight, and it broke clean for Du Plessis all night.
How One-Sided Was It Really?
Two judges had it 49-46, one had it 50-45. Du Plessis's footwork did the real work here: constantly moving off the line and angling away, which meant Usman was never entering on a stationary target. Add a jab that kept him honest at range, and most of his entries looked rough from the jump. Both fighters walked away with the $100,000 Fight of the Night bonus — a lopsided scorecard doesn't always mean a boring fight, and this one wasn't.
Usman deserves real credit here too. He got rocked on the feet multiple times and kept fighting through every one of them, still finding gas in the championship rounds against a bigger, relentless opponent. That's a tough-out performance in a loss, not a blowout to wave away.
What Did the Model Miss This Week?
The card finished 7 of 9 on the model's predictions — close to 80%, including two real underdog hits: Felipe Franco (who also picked up a Performance of the Night bonus for his finish) and Jose Miguel Delgado. Two misses: Tommy McMillen over Alberto Montes, and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani over Seokhyeon Ko. Both were Low-confidence picks in the model's own tiers — close to a coin flip on paper, and that's exactly what they played out like. High-confidence picks held up again this week, which is the pattern that actually matters more than any single card's headline number.
What's Next?
Attention turns to UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, where former light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev returns for the first time since losing the belt to Alex Pereira. The model's breakdown drops Thursday.
Model record this card: 7-2 (77.8%). Main event confidence: 81%, correct.