We Called The Winner. Not The Submission.

Allen Got The Finish Nobody Saw Coming

Brendan Allen beat Christian Leroy Duncan Saturday night, exactly the winner we called. The method was the surprise. Duncan actually out-struck Allen significantly on the feet, 106 significant strikes landed to Allen's 51, and looked sharp doing it. Allen kept finding takedowns anyway -- four of them over five rounds -- and in the fifth he got Duncan's back and finished it with a rear-naked choke at 2:46. Duncan had never been submitted in his professional or amateur career before that. Both of his prior losses went the distance on the scorecards. Allen's grinding, round-after-round wrestling finally cashed in exactly when the fight looked like it might get away from him on the feet.

A Card Full Of Finishes

Seven of the ten fights we graded ended in a finish, and most of the finishers were the ones with real momentum behind them. Francisco Prado knocked out Ismael Bonfim in the first round, a live underdog pick that held up even after Bonfim missed weight by 7.5 pounds two days earlier. Julius Walker stopped Gerald Meerschaert in round two. Niko Price knocked out Leon Shahbazyan in the first round, a pick we flipped away from the model's original lean after Shahbazyan's own recent finish-losing streak. Loopy Godinez beat Ketlen Souza clean on the scorecards, and Alice Pereira finished Daria Zhelezniakova right at the horn of round one.

The Misses

We went 6 of 10 overall, 60%. Matheus Camilo lost a decision to Jai Herbert. Kai Kamaka III got knocked out by Andre Fili in round two. Malcolm Wellmaker lost the same way, stopped by Otari Tanzilovi in round two. Felipe Franco was submitted by Brendson Ribeiro in the first round. One fight on the card, Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto, ended in a majority draw and doesn't count toward either side's record.

What's Next

We're headed to Edmonton for UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on October 17 -- Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott headline at welterweight, with Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius and Kyle Daukaus vs. Marc-Andre Barriault also on the main card. Our breakdown drops this week.

Card record: 6-4 (one majority draw excluded). Main event: 55% confidence, correct winner, wrong method -- we called Allen, not the submission.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the model's main event pick hit?

Yes on the winner, no on the method. The model picked Brendan Allen at 55% confidence to win by decision. He won instead by rear-naked choke in round 5 at 2:46 -- the first submission loss of Christian Leroy Duncan's career.

Had Christian Leroy Duncan ever been submitted before?

No. Both of his prior professional losses went to decision, and his amateur career had no submission losses either. The Allen fight was the first submission of his career.

How did the model do on the rest of the card?

6 of 10 correct overall (60%), not counting a majority draw between Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto that isn't scored either way. Hits were Allen, Loopy Godinez, Julius Walker, Francisco Prado, Niko Price, and Alice Pereira.

What was the model's best call this card?

Francisco Prado over Ismael Bonfim -- a live underdog pick that held up even after Bonfim missed weight by 7.5 pounds two days before the fight. Prado won by first-round knockout.

What's the next UFC card the model is covering?

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on October 17, 2026, in Edmonton, Alberta.