Did the Model Get Fiziev vs. Torres Right?
No. The model had Manuel Torres winning by KO/TKO at 56% confidence — already a Low-confidence, close-to-a-coin-flip read. Rafael Fiziev knocked Torres out just 15 seconds into round two. The model correctly flagged this as a finish-likely fight; it had the wrong fighter doing the finishing.
What Does a Low-Confidence Miss Actually Mean?
This is exactly what a 56% pick is supposed to look like roughly half the time. That's not an excuse — it's the honest math behind the number. A miss in the Low tier isn't the same kind of problem as a miss in the High tier, and pretending otherwise would be dishonest in the other direction.
How Did the Rest of the Card Go?
6 of 10 correct, 60% on the card. A High-confidence pick — Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev at 77% — finished by KO/TKO in round 1, right on script. The main event miss stings more because it's the headline fight, but the tier discipline elsewhere on the card held up.
Model record this card: 6-4 (60%). Main event: wrong, and it was always closer to a coin flip than a claim.