Did the Model Get Medić vs. Rodriguez Right?
Exactly right, on both counts. The model had Uroš Medić at 57% confidence to beat Daniel Rodriguez by KO/TKO. The style of finish was never really in question — both the model and the public expected Medić to win by strikes if he won at all. The real gap was about whether he'd win in the first place: the public had him as roughly an 80% favorite heading into fight week, well beyond the model's number. Medić delivered exactly what both sides expected, finishing Rodriguez with strikes just 30 seconds into round one, in his first UFC main event, in his home country.
Why Did the Model Hold Back on Confidence?
The preview flagged the case for Rodriguez going in: a real edge in output, a three-inch reach advantage, and a track record showing his chin has mostly held up against everyone but elite competition. None of that got a chance to matter. Medić's power and finishing instincts were the deciding factor from the opening exchange, exactly the way the model's method breakdown — 62% KO/TKO — said was the most likely path. The model was never doubting the finish; it was just less certain than the public that Medić would be the one landing it.
How Did the Rest of the Card Go?
Strong. The model finished 7-1 (87.5%) on graded fights, one of the best results of the season. Aleksandar Rakić's win over Marcin Tybura was a clean sweep on the scorecards (30-27 across all three judges) and the only other pick on the card to hit exactly right on both winner and method, at 77% confidence. Mateusz Rębecki's 82% call — the highest-confidence pick on the entire card — also landed, finishing Kyle Prepolec by strikes rather than the decision the model projected.
Three more picks hit the winner with a method miss: Navajo Stirling over Jan Błachowicz (projected decision, actual KO/TKO), Robert Valentin over Duško Todorović (projected decision, actual submission), and Bogdan Grad over Dennis Buzukja (projected decision, actual submission). That's a real pattern worth naming honestly — the model leaned toward these going the distance and three of them ended early instead. The winner call held up every time; picking the finish is clearly the harder half of this problem right now.
What Was the One Miss?
Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev, a 55% pick — already a Low-confidence, close-to-a-coin-flip read before the fight happened. Musayev finished Klein by KO/TKO in round two. That's exactly what a pick in the mid-50s is supposed to look like close to half the time; it's not a tier-discipline problem, it's the honest math behind the number. Full card results are here for anyone tracking the undercard.
Model record this card: 7-1 (87.5%). Main event confidence: 57%, correct winner, correct method.