Can Usman's Wrestling Actually Slow Du Plessis Down?
Every preview for this one starts the same way — with the assumption that Du Plessis's chaos and volume simply overwhelm people over five rounds. That's been true against a certain kind of opponent. Usman isn't that kind of opponent. His whole career has been built on doing the one thing nobody wants done to them: taking the fight to the mat and never giving it back.
What Did Usman's Win Over Buckley Actually Prove?
Usman's last outing wasn't a striking clinic, it was a wrestling clinic — he found the takedowns, controlled the clock, and turned a dangerous striker into a passenger for long stretches of the fight. That's the blueprint he brings into Saturday: not out-fighting Du Plessis, but never letting this be a fight at all.
Why Does the Model Still Like Du Plessis?
Du Plessis doesn't need one clean moment to win. He needs five rounds of forward pressure, awkward angles, and volume that someone has to answer every single second — and that style creates scrambles, which is exactly where Du Plessis has quietly picked up finishes before. If this fight hits the mat in a bad spot for Usman, that threat is real too.
So What's the Pick?
The model has Du Plessis by decision at 81% confidence — 62% decision, 32% submission, 6% KO/TKO in the method breakdown. Usman wants to slow this down, but containing Du Plessis's pace for five full rounds is a much harder problem than winning three-round wrestling battles.
The whole fight turns on the first two rounds. If Du Plessis is comfortable working out of scrambles and Usman isn't landing his takedowns clean, the pace gets away from Usman fast. If Usman is controlling position early — really controlling it, not just attempting it — he can manage Du Plessis's volume the way he's managed bigger strikers his whole career. Watch his takedown entries in round one: clean and early means he's dictating the fight; stuffed or scrambled means Du Plessis is already setting the pace for the next five rounds.
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman goes down July 18, 2026.